Shifting Sands - Following the Money

Sunday, May 21, 2006
If one were to believe polls paid for by the adjunct propaganda organs of the Democratic Party one would think the Republican Party in serious trouble. In fact, if one reads the political commentators paid to fill all the vacant column inches every week one might have reason to believe that "something new" or "something serious" was happening. According to the 'dollar polls' that may provide a better lens on the political situation, there is something happening. Democrats are definitely putting money up at a rate far better than they have in the past. The loss of the unions 'help' has apparently been acknowledged and the propaganda effort on the part of the party organs has encouraged a level of giving at a rate double that of the 2002 cycle (first quarter results). That's quite an achievement and Howard Dean and Rahm Emmanuel deserve kudos from their party for their efforts thus far.

On the Republican side contributions are up a paltry 24% but one might give some slight consideration that a 24% increase in contributions is perhaps a signal that the Republican apocalypse may still lay in the future rather than having already occurred. Some small cold comfort might also be obtained by reflection upon the better than 2 to 1 edge that Republicans continue to hold in contributions. Down sharply from the 3 to 1 edge that they held in '02 at the same point, to be sure, but not because of any decrease in contributions on the part of Republicans.

The '06 elections may be of more interest than first appearance indicated but the reason lies with affirmative actions taken by the Democrats (including emphasis upon phantasmal 'deep' dissension within the Republican ranks) rather than upon the reality expressed by increased Republican contributions. Money does talk - and what it's saying is that the Bush/Rove penchant for keeping the powder dry until the right moment is still operative.

10 comments:

David Thomson said...

I continue to believe that the Republicans will do well in November. At the very minimum, the GOP will retain control of both houses of Congress. The majority of red state voters my be sometimes upset with the Republicans. Nonetheless, they have less faith in the Democratic Party.

Fresh Air said...

...up a paltry 24%...

Thanks, Rick. I think this is a signal that I need to give some more money to the Republican party.

Jonathan said...

Who knows. There's a lot of time yet. However, Intrade is showing <50% odds for the Republicans to hold the House. I hope you're right.

vnjagvet said...
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vnjagvet said...

The money still has to have a message to pitch. That seems to be a problem for both parties now.

If past history is any indication, it has been a bit harder for the Democratic party to come up with messages that cut across the red and blue colors of the nation.

Nothing I have seen to date (especially with Mr. Dean) seems to indicate a "new day".

Rick Ballard said...

"Nothing I have seen to date (especially with Mr. Dean) seems to indicate a "new day"."

Nope. It's still "vote for us 'cause we're not them". Congressional negatives have gone up faster than the President's positives have gone down.

Jonathan's quote of 50/50 odds seems reasonable at the moment and may remain reasonable through election day. Null issue elections do tend to help incumbents though. And there is absolutely no evidence that the country is shifting left.

An announcement that Justice Stevens desires to spend more time with his family would change things substantially.

Fresh Air said...

I have to say as it relates to the House, the smart money is reading Jay Cost. House seats only switch about 2% of the time, and 2% of 435 is just barely enough for the Democrats to get back into power. But the odds that they'll get the 15 seats they need is still, IMO, nowhere near 50-50. It's like getting a coin to come up heads twice in a row. Sounds easy to do, but would you stake your life on it?

At any rate, I can feel the spring doldrums wearing off and the Iranians about to do something stupid. Meanwhile, the new Iraqi prime minister isn't taking any crap. The illegals made a royal faux pas by listening to their Commie handlers. And banana peels are strewn along the steps of the Supreme Court.

What were those odds again? I think I'm going to call my bookie.

terrye said...

House elections are local, and national anoyance at either party may not translate into local disenchantment.

vnjagvet said...

I understand the polls which focus on satisfaction with a constituency's own Congressman seems to be holding at its usual high percentage.

Has anyone seen any polls contrary to that generally well-known phenomenon?

Rick Ballard said...

Vnjagvet,

There are very few district polls available as yet. There are some statewide polls available for Senate seats and the ones negative to Republicans have received some play. Rasmussen has a decent round up as to the statewides but they are no more trustworthy than the typical MSM "over 18" garbage at this point.

The Dems are working this pretty hard and pretty quietly - those money numbers for the DCCC are pretty much unheard of. This is looking more like their successful '98 effort all the time. Their plan is to lay low on the breadth of their attack while making public noise over Ohio.I don't think it will work out but I'm very interested in figuring out the Rep counter. It won't be apparent for a bit - probably not until about June 15.

Have you seen any rumors on a departure by Stevens?